According to economists from the World Economic Forum, AI-related debt pressures are a worrying macroeconomic trend in 2026. Worrying, indeed. I believe an AI bubble burst is absolutely in the cards, although the burst will likely occur after the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs.
The AI bubble has been building for some time now. The “magnificent seven” tech stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla) currently make up 33% of the S&P 500, and AI-related investment accounted for over 90% of U.S. GDP growth in the first two quarters of last year. The spending on AI infrastructure has shown no signs of stopping, with analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase predicting spending of $5 trillion more over the next four years. Four heavyweight hyperscalers—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—intend to spend $670 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026 alone.
The math problem underlying the AI boom
As German economist and mathematician Joachim Klement points out in his recent piece for the Financial Times, the spending on AI infrastructure dwarfs what was happening at the height of the dot-com crisis. Last year, U.S. businesses invested $1.5 trillion in IT software and hardware—an incredibly high number, especially when compared to the level of spending during the height of the dot-com bubble, which totaled $466 billion ($829 billion when adjusted for inflation).
Klement, a managing director at Panmure Liberum, believes the math behind the AI boom is impossible and will lead to a severe correction. He writes, “The US economy is growing solely because of the tech boom. I calculate that over the past four quarters, 93 percent of U.S. GDP growth was explained by tech investments. Even at the peak of the TMT (technology, media, and telecom) bubble, it barely reached 60 percent.”
According to Klement, if tech investments were to decline by 4-6%, the U.S. economy would enter a recession very quickly. And Klement doesn’t foresee a world in which the hyperscalers don’t have a negative return on investment over the next five years (he makes an exception for Amazon).
Speaking directly to the over-hyped IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI, Klement writes, “The IPO of these AI companies is probably nothing more than a major transfer of investment risk from the current owners to retail investors, pension funds and others who are willing to buy the hype.”
Interestingly, Klement is well-known for picking the winning teams of the 2014, 2018, and 2022 men’s World Cup finals. However, for what it’s worth, he picked the Netherlands to win this year, so perhaps he’s not Nostradamus after all. Nevertheless, the fact remains: we’re in an AI bubble and it will likely burst.
Big tech is taking on a ton of debt
According to Moody’s Analytics, tech companies issued a whopping $108.7 billion in corporate bonds during the last quarter in 2025, and this trend has continued through the first half of 2026.
Mark Zandi, a chief economist at Moody’s, says, “It’s a lot of debt, and a lot of it all of a sudden.” When these big tech companies fund unproven ventures with debt, “it does put the broader financial system at risk. If the financial system is at risk, then the broader economy is.”
Speaking about hyperscalers like Google, Microsoft, and Meta, venture capitalist Paul Kedrosky says, “If these companies are so profitable, why are they using debt? It gives you a sense of the scale of what’s going on.”
Circular financing, cross-holdings, and questionable financial engineering
Writing in TIME Magazine, Ganesh Sitaraman, a law professor at Vanderbilt University, and Asad Ramzanali, the director of AI and tech policy at the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator, recently sounded alarm bells about the questionable financial engineering practices that are so prevalent among today’s major AI players.
Sitaraman and Ramzanali write, “We’re seeing a rise in specific forms of financial engineering—circular financing, “off books” special purpose vehicles, huge private credit loans, and significant volumes of credit default swaps and asset-backed securities—which obscure a full understanding of the systemic risks.”
The circular equity financing within so many AI infrastructure deals is particularly concerning. And we’re seeing a lot of this. Company 1 invests in Company 2; then Company 2 uses those funds to buy from Company 1. Think about all the cloud companies and chipmakers investing in Anthropic and OpenAI right now.
As Sitarama and Ramzanali note in their March 2026 publication “After the AI Crash”, vendor-based equity investments at this scale is a new phenomenon, which they describe as a “new form of financial engineering.” They warn, “All of the largest AI, cloud, and chip companies own parts of each other, which means a small or unexpected problem at one company can cascade quickly to all of them.”
We are also seeing cloud-for-credit exchanges and mark-to-market accounting rules being employed. Cloud-for-credit exchanges occur when hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google invest in AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic and then record OpenAI and Anthropic’s returning cloud spend on their books as revenue.
Mark-to-market accounting allows the hyperscalers to book unrealized gains on their equity stakes as net income. According to Sitaraman and Ramanali, “Amazon’s stake in Anthropic alone added $16.8 billion to its Q1 2026 earnings, and Alphabet reported roughly $28.7 billion in similar unrealized gains.”
Such financial engineering, combined with circular financing schemes and inflated valuations, could very well set us up for an economy-wide crash. Or it could be even simpler. Rockefeller International chairman Ruchir Sharma believes the AI bubble could burst if the Fed decides to raise rates.
Ruchir Sharma believes monetary policy will cause the AI bubble to burst
Earlier this month, Sharma went on CNBC to discuss the AI bubble. Sharma, who has examined financial bubbles extensively, believes the current AI boom checks all four boxes of a bubble: overvaluation, over-investment, over-ownership, and over-leverage across the sector. Sharma notes that Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft also have recently become big issuers of debt, which he views as a classic late-cycle bubble indicator.
In Sharma’s estimation, the AI bubble burst will come down to monetary policy; he expects stock prices to go parabolic before the bubble pops, with higher interest rates (e.g., the 10-year Treasury yield going over 5%) eventually causing cheap capital to dry up. “Bubbles do not fall under their own weight. It is always higher interest rates that end big bubbles,” Sharma explained on CNBC.
So, what’s in store? An AI-induced tech bubble burst or an economy-wide crash
For those of us who foresee an AI-induced crisis and crash, there are several different possible outcomes. One is a correction reminiscent of the late 1990’s dot-com bubble, which resulted in a sectoral bubble burst in 2000 that was largely contained to Silicon Valley. In that crash, 200,000 people lost their jobs and thousands of tech companies went under. The U.S. economy did enter a brief and broader recession in March 2001; the stock market lost $8.3 trillion in value, making an impact in many 401(k)s.
That said, a tech bubble burst like the dot-com fiasco is arguably a better outcome than an economy-wide crash similar to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. In that downturn, the housing crisis led to a full-blown recession that took down the entire economy. Unfortunately, this is a real possibility given our current economy’s overreliance on AI investments, circular financing, cross-holdings, and opaque financial engineering.
Sumit Sharma, an independent economist and tech policy expert, believes that antitrust enforcement from the FTC could potentially save us from an economy-wide crash. In an Op-Ed for Tech Policy Press, Sharma writes, “We need antitrust enforcement to ensure that AI firms compete independently and vigorously, without the contractual restraints of cloud-for-equity, without overlapping boards, and without minority stakes that quietly align incentives.”
Sharma sees a solution in the FTC’s January 2025 Staff Report on AI Partnerships and Investments. According to Sharma, the key motivation behind Microsoft’s investments in OpenAI was to create a moat around their cloud business. As Sharma explains, these cloud-for-equity deals “[bind] the most promising frontier-model developers to the very firms they might otherwise displace, while making it harder for cloud entrants and independent labs to compete on the merits. These contractual terms and cross-holdings simply create the appearance of competition while allowing consolidation.”
I agree with Sharma that unraveling these cross-holdings would be good for the average consumer and the overall economy in the long run. A correction is inevitable, and if the FTC unravels some of these cross-holdings, that could prevent one large AI company’s failure from spreading across an interlocked network.
Not everyone believes we’re in a bubble
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the folks who think we’re not in a bubble and headed for a serious correction. Many analysts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan believe we are not in an AI-fueled bubble. In a recent J.P. Morgan Asset Management report, investment specialist Nicholas Cangialosi and market strategist Stephanie Aliaga make the case that the hyperscalers’ large margins and strong cash flow make the current economic landscape different from the dot-com bubble and the 2008 recession.
Despite acknowledging the rampant circular financing between the frontier model developers, chip companies, and hyperscalers, Cangialosi and Aliga suggest that the hyperscalers’ balance sheets make them impervious to the tightening credit conditions that have burst past bubbles. Also, they point out that spending is primarily invested in physical AI infrastructure like chips and data centers.
They write, “At the peak of the dot-com era, only about 7% of the fiber-optic network was being utilized, leaving vast excess capacity that took years to absorb. But today, data center vacancy rates are at record lows and utilization levels hover around 80% […] Hyperscalers are already seeing returns through increased cloud demand and productivity gains in coding, advertising, and enterprise tools.” In my mind, this is an overly optimistic take.
Key takeaways
Whether you agree with me that we’re already in a bubble or not, the fact remains that policymakers should be prepared for a crash.
I agree that the cross-holdings among the largest frontier AI companies and members of the magnificent seven is distorting competition and could create a systemic crash.
It is also a huge red flag that OpenAI floated the idea of the U.S. government taking a 5% equity stake in their company earlier this month. OpenAI’s projected financial results foresee negative cash flow until 2030, and likewise, Anthropic isn’t expecting a profit for another four years at the earliest.
I agree with Asad Ramzanali and Ganesh Sitaraman at the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator who call out the circular equity financing that is rampant in this space. They write, “In AI, vendors are taking equity stakes in unprofitable companies, at a scale that, based on original commitments, could include the largest-ever investment in a private company—because most of the money will be spent buying their own products.”
They are are right to bring attention to what they call an “extreme financialization of the AI sector, that includes financial engineering of various sorts, including circular equity investments, a wide array of debt vehicles that are complex and interlocking, and government subsidies, all of which create a financial picture that is opaque and shifts risk from companies to all of society.”
And when the AI bubble does burst, Ramzanali and Sitaraman argue that Congress should absolutely not bail out any AI firms, affected financial entities, and related tech companies. I could not agree more.

